Everything We Know About Joe Biden's 2024 Plans
Buckle in everyone, because we're about to drop some serious political info that is guaranteed to dominate the news cycle for the next two years.
When you hear politicians say that they aren't even considering their next campaign, you can bet pretty much anything that they are. Our politics these days are a beat-or-get-beaten kind of game, and if it seems as though we are always in an election cycle — well, that's pretty much because we are. It was just moments after President Joe Biden was elected into office in 2020 that questions started arising about his plans for 2024. Being the oldest president to serve in office in United States' history, Biden's future as our current political leader quickly dominated headlines, as many started looking to the Democratic Party's plans for both the midterms and the next presidential election.
Biden, for the most part, has skirted around officially commenting on 2024 and has instead buckled down on his actions while in office. From the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to inflation and the crisis in Ukraine, there is a lot to address — but questions about his future as president remain up in the air. With that in mind, here's everything we know about Joe Biden's 2024 plans.
Biden reportedly told Obama he plans to run in 2024
While President Joe Biden is working on guiding a country that is arguably in multiple stages of disarray — given the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, increased crime rates, and more — reports about his intentions for 2024 are circulating. According to The Hill, Biden confided in former President Barack Obama and has reportedly told the former president that he has every intention to run for office once again in 2024. Two unnamed sources confirmed the news to The Hill, but Biden's office has been reserved on the subject.
Of Biden's purported intentions, one of the sources shared, "[Biden] wants to run and he's clearly letting everyone know." The insider went on to share that although Biden's approval ratings have plateaued in the low 40s — and remained stagnant for nearly the last year — he is likely considered the only Democrat that can fend off a former President Donald Trump, should he decide to run.
Of Biden's approval ratings, an April Gallup report estimated that the future of Biden's on-the-job numbers will likely look the same ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, as presidents historically have not come back from an approval dip between their fifth and seventh quarters in office.
Democrats need a Plan B if Biden doesn't run again
President Joe Biden campaigned on a rather simple idea back in 2019 — he was the only person who could beat former President Donald Trump. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic was raging at the time, and Biden led a rather light (and virtual) campaign as opposed to the rigorous trail often trodden by politicians. While that tactic worked for the 2020 race, one Democratic strategist told Vanity Fair that the 2024 presidential election will be an entirely different story, and warned that Biden might not have what it takes to do it all again.
"I don't think he's physically up to being able to run again," the unnamed strategist said. "I'm optimistic that by the summer of 2024 the country is going to be back to 95 percent normality — and he's going to have to run a vigorous, hard campaign that he didn't in 2020. He's not going to be able to stay in the basement."
So if Biden doesn't run, the Democrats are going to need a plan — cue Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris could have a big advantage over other potential Democratic candidates, a consultant told the magazine, given her existing proximity to the Oval Office.
We may not see Biden debate GOP candidates in 2024
While presidential debates started as an honest way for opposing candidates to compare and contrast their ideas in front of voters, the politically charged events have largely turned into a spectacle of intimidation. Remember when former President Donald Trump followed former Democratic presidential candidate and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton around the town hall-style debate?
While President Joe Biden and Trump went head-to-head in two presidential debates ahead of the 2020 election, voters might not see any debates come 2024 due to the Republican National Committee's new stance on the historic practice. As noted by Newsweek, the RNC officially withdrew from the Commission on Presidential Debates, citing that the CPD has allowed biased debates to take hold.
"Debates are an important part of the democratic process, and the RNC is committed to free and fair debates," RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has said. "The Commission on Presidential Debates is biased and has refused to enact simple and commonsense reforms to help ensure fair debates including hosting debates before voting begins and selecting moderators who have never worked for candidates on the debate stage."
What Democrats could Biden face in 2024?
While President Joe Biden certainly seems like the frontrunner come 2024, he may square off against some members of his own party. The 2020 campaign definitely gave him a run for his money, if you remember, as Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and political newcomer and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg swiped supporters left and right. Ultimately, the establishment Democrats rallied around Biden and dropped their own campaigns rather suddenly, but it might not look like that again for the current leader in the next presidential election.
As noted by CNN, Biden could face Buttigieg once again in 2024, as well as Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and everyone's favorite mitten-wearing grandpa, Sanders. "Mayor Pete," as Buttigieg was known on the trail, now has a much higher profile political status as Secretary of Transportation, and Warren and Sanders could once again appeal to the left-leaning wing of the Democratic party. For his part, Sanders recently weighed in on a possible 2024 run, his team saying that he has "not ruled out" running if Biden doesn't seek reelection, per a memo obtained by NBC News. Other politicians who could throw their hats in the ring include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and former Georgia State Representative and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, but ultimately time will tell.
Who could Biden face from the Republican party?
Apart from the obvious answer of former President Donald Trump, who could President Joe Biden potentially face from the Republican Party come 2024? While you might think that it's still too early to really know, a former advisor to Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told The Hill that politicians are already gearing up for the fight, dropping hints, and making under-the-radar moves to prepare for the next presidential election.
"The invisible primary is real," Alex Conant, former advisor and Republican strategist, told The Hill. "I think the anticipation is that [President] Biden might not run again or if he does, he'll be really vulnerable. There are a lot of people who are very excited to run in 2024 and are doing everything they can now to be ready. The starting gun goes off after the midterms."
So what names are floating around in addition to that of Trump? Former Republican Vice President Mike Pence told a crowd that he'd "keep [them] posted" regarding his 2024 bid, and former Secretary of state Mike Pompeo is said to be considering a presidential bid. "Once we get past November [2022]," Conant alluded, "it's all about running for president."
Here's where Biden fell in polls as late as April
We established earlier that President Joe Biden's current approval ratings are making 2024 look a bit precarious for the current president, but where does he fall in the polls? Democratic strategists might not be pleased to hear that Biden's early numbers aren't looking so great when poised against former President Donald Trump — and while it's still two years away, 2024 is already looking to be pretty dramatic.
A Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, provided exclusively to The Hill in late March, found that in a hypothetical 2024 matchup between Biden and Trump, the former president outperformed Biden 47% to 41%. About 12% of voters at the time the poll was conducted were undecided, alluding to yet another presidential election that could be dangerously close. If you recall, the 2020 election was very tight, with Biden securing 51.3% of the vote as opposed to Trump's 46.9%, per CNN.
Does Vice President Kamala Harris help in this hypothetical matchup? The short answer is "yes." The same poll found that Harris outperforms current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) — a favorite for a 2024 Republican run — by a two-point margin. It's safe to say that it'll be a gamble.
Ukraine crisis could impact Biden's 2024 plans
While running for president in the 2020 election cycle, President Joe Biden famously shared that witnessing racially charged events in Charlottesville, Virginia motivated him to seek office once again. Come 2024, Biden might allude to yet another crisis as a reason to stay in office, this time being the unfolding war in Ukraine. As noted by U.S. News & World Report, Biden has remained steadfast in his dedication to aiding Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia, and his determination to see the plans through could motivate voters to rally around him. When asked by a journalist in Brussels if European leaders had confidence in him to see the job through to the end, Biden did not mince his words and shared that his experience — coupled with his dedication to working with others — is more than enough to maintain faith in his performance.
"I've been dealing with foreign policy for longer than anybody who's been involved in the process right now," Biden said. "I don't think you'll find any European leader who thinks that I am not up to the task."
Biden, as of April 2022, has promised an additional $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, as noted by NPR.
Vice President Kamala Harris could be President Joe Biden's 2024 running mate
While Vice President Kamala Harris could easily be the Democratic Party's Plan B should President Joe Biden decide not to run for president in 2024, the commander-in-chief has made it clear that Harris would be his running mate if he decided to seek reelection. Biden was asked during an early 2022 press conference if he was happy with Harris' performance as vice president and if she would be on a 2024 ticket with him, Axios reported. Biden, in his signature style, did not mince words.
"Yes and yes," the president said when prompted. In a follow-up question, the president was asked to elaborate. He responded by saying "there was no need to." "She's going to be my running mate, number one. And number two, I did put her in charge. I think she's doing a good job," he said.
Will previous Biden voters rally behind him in 2024?
If you paid attention in history class back in the day, you may remember a term such as "coalition" accompanying the "New Deal" or "Reagan." Basically, a coalition is a collective group of voters that represent political support for a policy or party figure — so when you hear of the New Deal Coalition, the term is referring to the voters who benefitted from and supported the Democratic Party from the 1930s until approximately the 1960s, all under the guise of former President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's New Deal policies. With all of that said, it begs the question — do coalitions still exist, and does President Joe Biden have one?
As noted by NBC News, Biden benefitted from a Democratic coalition that essentially banded voters together to beat former President Donald Trump. Apart from that, the voting block wasn't monolithic and didn't really hold together for long. So can Biden rely on those voters once again, or has the support among a broad spectrum of voters gone downhill? NBC News asserted that Biden may have a tough time rallying young voters between the ages of 18 and 34, as well as liberal voters who would prefer a more liberal candidate such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass).
Biden apparently welcomes idea of facing Trump again
Among the "will he or won't he" question about whether or not President Joe Biden will run in 2024 is, of course, former President Donald Trump. Trump's looming presence has certainly impacted politics even after just one term in office, and if the rumors are to be believed, Trump is gunning for a 2024 campaign with even more gusto and support than his first campaign. So how does Biden feel about potentially facing Trump once more on the campaign trail? As noted by Politico, Biden was faced with that very question while in Brussels, and he cheekily answered.
"In the next election, I'd be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me," Biden said, referring to Trump.
For context, Biden was in Belgium meeting with members of NATO, G-7, and other European leaders to address the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Historically, presidents have kept their comments on domestic issues — and certainly future elections — to a minimum while abroad, making the very question Biden was faced with rather unique.
Could any other Democrat beat Donald Trump?
Back in 2016, we kept hearing that there was no one else who could beat former President Donald Trump other than then-presidential candidate Joe Biden.
Now we don't exactly know if that was, in fact, true, but President Joe Biden did beat Trump, so there was at least a kernel of wisdom there. Can the same sentiment really apply to 2024? John Anzalone, Biden's pollster, seems to think so. During an interview with Politico, Anzalone shared that in addition to there being "no indication" that Biden won't run in 2024, he doubled down on the notion that Biden is the only politician who could give Trump a run for his money. Furthermore, the pollster asserted that he was not alone in his thinking.
"A lot of us feel that if Trump runs, there's no one else that could beat Trump [other] than Joe Biden," Anzalone said. "You go head-to-head and Joe Biden's always ahead of him. Not by a lot — one or two points. ... Even at his lowest approval rating, he still beats Donald Trump."
So what does the pollster think about politics these days, and certainly the landscape ahead of the 2022 midterm elections? "It's the worst political environment that I've lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant," he said. Yikes.
Joe Biden's son, Hunter, could be an issue in 2024
Politicians digging up dirt to slap their competitors with is nothing new, and as far as elected officials go these days, having skeletons in the closet seems like a prerequisite. When it comes to President Joe Biden, he's on the cleaner side of scandal when you think of how long he's been in public office, but he is by no means spotless. As Republicans are hoping to take back control of Congress come the 2022 midterm elections, the president might face a new onslaught of investigations — namely having to do with his son, Hunter Biden. If you haven't been keeping a close eye on Hunter, he has been involved in a number of legal issues involving taxes and potential money laundering, and his role on the board of Ukrainian-owned company Burisma Holdings Limited sparked interest for all the wrong reasons.
So why should Joe be wary of his son come 2024? If Republicans do snatch control of Congress in a few short months, the president could face some less than friendly questioning by Republican Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Chuck Grassley (Iowa), among others. As noted by The Hill, Johnson wants to specifically look into Hunter's travel history.
"I'd kind of like that to wrap that up," Johnson said. "We've been trying to get his travel records for a couple of years now."
Americans aren't convinced that Biden will run in 2024
While President Joe Biden reportedly told former President Barack Obama that he has every intention of seeking another term in office, he may want to consider telling the public that, too. Perhaps one of the most powerful trains of thought currently working against Biden is that a number of voters simply don't think he'll run again — perhaps because of his age, energy, or level of interest. Whatever the reasoning, a big chunk of Americans believe that Biden will simply be a one-term president, and will hand the reins over to someone else come 2024.
If you don't want to take our word for it, how about listening to The Wall Street Journal? About 52% of Americans surveyed in a recent poll for the outlet said that they don't believe Biden will seek a second term in office, as opposed to the 29% who think he will. About 19% of those polled think that Biden is currently on the fence about the decision, and almost a third of Democrats polled believe he's hanging his hat on 2024.
What would happen if Biden were to lose to Trump in 2024?
We know what you might be thinking — if President Joe Biden runs in 2024 and loses to former President Donald Trump, what happens then? Well, Trump would once again serve as president, and no — a president winning elections four years apart isn't as uncommon as you think — but it's not as simple as that. The New Republic had politicians, public figures, and professors weigh in on a potential Trump term come 2024, and many described a dire situation. Take Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), for example, who pointed out that a Trump win could point to the rolling back of election "safeguards" and thus enabling voter fraud.
"I'm concerned about all the steps that are being taken that are removing the safeguards that we had in the last election," Booker admitted. "And so what my worry is, is that the election comes and because of those anti-democratic changes or those voting rights changes, that we have real disagreements ... that we end up having politicians making the decisions as opposed to people that are really independent. ... It's just the fragility of our democracy now[.]"
Law professor Rick Hasen, who teaches at the University of California Irvine, also weighed in, saying that the "worst-case scenario" is an unfair election. "That would mean the end of American democracy, at least for a time," Hasen warned.